Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,944
2 Rhode Island 143,683
3 South Dakota 140,554
4 Utah 127,710
5 Tennessee 124,783
6 Arizona 121,780
7 Iowa 118,071
8 Wisconsin 116,152
9 Nebraska 115,690
10 South Carolina 115,524
11 Oklahoma 114,833
12 New Jersey 114,764
13 Arkansas 113,948
14 Delaware 112,267
15 Indiana 111,766
16 Alabama 111,626
17 Illinois 109,801
18 Kansas 108,943
19 Idaho 108,330
20 New York 108,318
21 Mississippi 107,224
22 Florida 107,124
23 Minnesota 107,047
24 Nevada 106,208
25 Montana 105,604
26 Wyoming 105,596
27 Georgia 103,981
28 Kentucky 103,699
29 Massachusetts 102,841
30 Texas 102,465
31 Louisiana 102,253
32 Missouri 101,260
33 Michigan 99,652
34 Connecticut 97,706
35 New Mexico 97,310
36 California 96,214
37 North Carolina 96,156
38 Colorado 96,126
39 Alaska 95,776
40 Pennsylvania 94,736
41 Ohio 94,686
42 West Virginia 90,918
43 Virginia 79,394
44 Maryland 76,319
45 New Hampshire 72,859
46 District of Columbia 69,653
47 Washington 58,570
48 Puerto Rico 54,149
49 Maine 50,988
50 Oregon 48,580
51 Vermont 38,975
52 Hawaii 25,209

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 177
2 Colorado 121
3 Arkansas 104
4 Tennessee 100
5 Wyoming 100
6 Missouri 99
7 Utah 97
8 Washington 80
9 Oregon 69
10 Indiana 64
11 Arizona 62
12 Nevada 60
13 North Dakota 55
14 Hawaii 54
15 Montana 52
16 Louisiana 50
17 Kentucky 48
18 Mississippi 48
19 Texas 43
20 Idaho 40
21 Georgia 39
22 West Virginia 39
23 Maine 38
24 New Mexico 35
25 Pennsylvania 34
26 Delaware 33
27 Alabama 32
28 New Jersey 32
29 Michigan 30
30 Ohio 30
31 Iowa 29
32 North Carolina 29
33 New York 28
34 Alaska 27
35 Illinois 27
36 Minnesota 27
37 Kansas 26
38 Oklahoma 25
39 California 22
40 Massachusetts 18
41 Puerto Rico 18
42 Rhode Island 18
43 Virginia 18
44 Maryland 17
45 New Hampshire 17
46 Wisconsin 16
47 District of Columbia 14
48 South Carolina 14
49 Nebraska 13
50 South Dakota 10
51 Vermont 10
52 Connecticut 8

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,964
2 New York 2,722
3 Massachusetts 2,602
4 Rhode Island 2,569
5 Mississippi 2,470
6 Arizona 2,440
7 Connecticut 2,317
8 Alabama 2,297
9 Louisiana 2,290
10 South Dakota 2,290
11 Pennsylvania 2,150
12 Michigan 2,079
13 New Mexico 2,050
14 Indiana 2,041
15 North Dakota 2,035
16 Illinois 2,009
17 Arkansas 1,941
18 Iowa 1,933
19 Georgia 1,928
20 South Carolina 1,898
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,825
23 Tennessee 1,815
24 Texas 1,796
25 Kansas 1,764
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,718
29 Kentucky 1,612
30 District of Columbia 1,611
31 California 1,609
32 Maryland 1,601
33 Missouri 1,597
34 West Virginia 1,589
35 Montana 1,535
36 Wisconsin 1,376
37 Minnesota 1,346
38 Virginia 1,323
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,266
41 Wyoming 1,252
42 Colorado 1,186
43 Idaho 1,185
44 New Hampshire 1,000
45 Puerto Rico 792
46 Washington 769
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 654
49 Maine 628
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Florida 4
2 Georgia 3
3 Michigan 3
4 Arizona 2
5 Colorado 2
6 Kentucky 2
7 Alabama 1
8 Alaska 1
9 Illinois 1
10 Indiana 1
11 Iowa 1
12 Louisiana 1
13 Maryland 1
14 Minnesota 1
15 Missouri 1
16 Montana 1
17 North Carolina 1
18 North Dakota 1
19 Ohio 1
20 Oregon 1
21 Pennsylvania 1
22 South Dakota 1
23 Texas 1
24 Virginia 1
25 Wisconsin 1
26 Arkansas 0
27 California 0
28 Connecticut 0
29 Delaware 0
30 District of Columbia 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Idaho 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Maine 0
35 Massachusetts 0
36 Mississippi 0
37 Nebraska 0
38 Nevada 0
39 New Hampshire 0
40 New Jersey 0
41 New Mexico 0
42 New York 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 Rhode Island 0
46 South Carolina 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,236 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 277,031 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,509 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,159 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,320 194 93
Richland South Carolina 113,845 998 68
York South Carolina 113,663 1003 68
Orange California 85,855 2267 27
Pierce Washington 62,124 2830 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,606 1853 41
York South Carolina 1,392 2107 32
Richland South Carolina 1,383 2120 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,383 2121 32
Pierce Washington 733 2775 11

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons